Two seemingly unconnected questions. Still, those in-the-know, know.
BIM will happen when the modus operandi of the present, non-BIM AEC industry is not longer sustainable and when high enough percentage of clients demand that what is currently sold to them as BIM (but is not really) starts making a measurable difference to their projects.
So, when will this critical mass be reached? What is the smallest number of projects, clients, practitioners needed to make it happen? What is the size at which the AEC will undergo a fundamental change in regard to its operations?
I’d guess that this ‘size’ is ill defined to even the best minds of the ‘Autodesks’ of the world.
First, because it can not be viewed in isolation, separated from the rest of the world, it is influenced by everything and is very fluid.
Second, because there is not real historical precedent to compare it to (no, the rise and rise of Flatacad was not the same);
The critical mass may not even be such a high number at all! If enough of participants of the AEC ‘monopoly board’ (see image attached) buy in at any one time around a number of projects, the scales could be easily tipped and a snowball effect achieved.
For BIM to work, it will need to become common. Google is common. Facebook is too.