...by which a model is created or chosen to try to best predict the probability of an outcome.”
Finding this definition was a sad discovery for me – “Predictive Modelling” is a perfect description for a concept within BIM, yet not well-explored but with significant potential.
IT, the insurance industry, archaeology and marketing have all put their pretty-paws on this terminology already but cannot claim exclusivity.
Predictive Modelling within AEC’s BIM will be a set-of-tools developed by manufacturers and suppliers (M&S) closely associated with AEC.
These tools will work like Predictive Texting;
Within a digital modelling environment, as a user created a digital building, the intelligent PM automatically and in real time compared all of the possible forms, shapes, sizes and combinations against a built-in dictionary of elements, and determined which would possibly suit the location/conditions best.
If it guessed incorrectly, the user would get the option to scroll through other possible types, originators without disruption to thinking processes.
An idea too far out?
There is of course the danger that it gets nipped-in-the-bud by those that like to promote the design process as totally unpredictable and random.
I believe PM in BIM has legs and when M&S of building materials and products decide to finally take an active role in how building designs are developed, documented and built, it will definitely fly (high).